The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has adjusted its global economic growth forecast for 2026, projecting a rise to 3.1%, a slight increase from its earlier estimate of 3.0%. This revision, however, remains below the 3.5% growth recorded in 2025. The global economy is anticipated to further expand by 3.4% in 2027.
While the IMF recognizes the positive impact of investment in artificial intelligence (AI) in mitigating the adverse effects of higher energy prices and geopolitical tensions, it highlights the uneven distribution of these benefits. The United States and China alone account for more than 75% of the demand for imported computer chips and other AI-related equipment.
The IMF also cautions against potential risks that could undermine global financial stability. These include a possible correction in AI-related stock markets, rising bond yields, increasing public debt, and cyber threats. Furthermore, the IMF estimates that AI could affect approximately 40% of jobs worldwide through changes in tasks, job quality, or employment levels.
Inflation is expected to reach 4.7% in 2026 before easing to 4.1% in 2027. This forecast assumes that oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz will resume by March and that demand for AI-related products will moderate.
Among major economies, the United States is projected to grow by 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027, while China’s economy is anticipated to expand by 4.5% this year. India is expected to continue as the fastest-growing major economy, with a growth rate of 7% in 2026, slightly down from 7.7% in 2025.
Emerging and developing economies are forecasted to grow by 3.7% in 2026, accelerating to 4.4% in 2027. Conversely, the economies of the Middle East and Central Asia face a more challenging outlook, with expected contractions this year before a recovery in 2027.
The IMF urges governments to bolster public finances and manage rising debt levels, as borrowing costs remain high amidst ongoing geopolitical uncertainties affecting the global economic outlook.