DataGreat, a tourism intelligence platform, has unveiled a scenario analysis on the potential impact of a prolonged conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States on Turkish tourism. This industry is the third-largest export sector for Türkiye. Alper Tekin, the founder of DataGreat, utilized the platform’s Crisis Impact Simulator along with the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025 dataset to conduct this analysis.
Türkiye is structurally positioned within the vicinity of the conflict zone, not by chance. Six of Türkiye’s top ten inbound tourism markets are situated within approximately 3,000 kilometers of the Iran–Israel axis. These markets include Russia, Germany, the United Kingdom, Iran, Bulgaria, and Georgia. Tourism significantly contributes over 11 percent to Türkiye’s GDP and supports around three million direct jobs, as reported by the WTTC figures referenced within the platform.
The Crisis Impact Simulator does not predict outcomes; instead, it applies deterministic scenario rules to WTTC and World Bank data. A generative-AI layer is used solely for creating explanatory narratives. All numerical claims made by the simulator are backed by a source identifier, ensuring that any output figures that cannot be verified against the dataset are rejected — a safeguard that Tekin refers to as “zero hallucinations.”
In Scenario A, a regional escalation might lead to airspace disruptions, tighter sanctions, or insurance-driven rerouting. This scenario primarily indicates a perception-spillover effect on European leisure demand in Türkiye, with countries like Germany, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands potentially delaying rather than canceling travel. Business travel originating from the EU appears more resilient than leisure travel.
Scenario B examines a potential Russian outbound shock, where Türkiye could see a 20 to 35 percent drop in Russian tourists over a year, influenced by increased sanctions, payment issues, and ruble pressure. This scenario’s impact would be most felt in the Antalya and Muğla coastal regions, particularly among operators reliant on Russian charters. Scenario C considers the volatility of the Turkish lira against the US dollar, predicting a temporary boost in dollar-denominated receipts as Türkiye becomes a more affordable destination. However, this could be counterbalanced by a decrease in domestic leisure demand as households adjust their discretionary spending. Tekin emphasizes that the platform is intended as a planning tool for destination management organizations and operators to run scenarios before they become reality, rather than a predictive measure.